The Trump administration continues to work on tariff deals, or ultimatums depending on your point of view. The latest is the agreement under which the European Union will face 15 percent tariffs on most of the bloc’s exports to the United States.
Most of us here in America, however, are waiting for what might happen Aug. 1. That’s the day that more tariffs on imports into the United States from more than 80 countries are scheduled to go into effect.
The White House argues that its international trade approach will help revitalize U.S. manufacturing. But, as a recent Tax Foundation analysis notes, a variety of food imports are also impacted by the tariffs, and these will likely lead to higher food prices for consumers.
Imported edibles: If you are watching the price of avocados from Mexico as closely as I am, this is disturbing news. Our neighbor to the south is tops the list of food exporters to the United States, followed by Canada, the EU, Brazil, and China.
Those five nations, says the Washington, D.C.-based tax policy think tank, account for 62 percent of the United States’ total food imports.
In 2024, the Tax Foundation notes that the United States imported about $221 billion in food products, 74 percent of which ($163 billion) faced Trump tariffs.
While these imports currently face tariff rates ranging from 10 percent to 30 percent, they will exceed 30 percent for some countries if the reciprocal tariffs go into effect on August 1.
North American ag issues: There is, to borrow a recipe reference, a dash of good news for at least for some edibles. Covered goods under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in Donald Trump’s first term, are exempt from the tariffs.
That means that around 63 percent of agricultural imports from Canada and Mexico can continue to come into the United States tariff-free.
But food imports that aren’t covered under USMCA are facing tariff rates of 25 percent, which are scheduled to increase to 35 percent and 30 percent for Canada and Mexico, respectively, by August 1.
EU effects: Accounting for those exemptions, the Tax Foundation pie chart below shows the total food imports subject to the tariffs by country, with EU imports the most affected.
In terms of specific products, the top five food imports to the United States facing tariffs, in order, are liqueurs and spirits, baked goods, coffee, fish, and beer. These products accounted for about 21 percent of total food imports in 2024, or $46.5 billion.
Sure, some of those products we can get domestically. But they may not be perfect replacements for the imported products.
And others just aren’t replaceable.
Yes, we have no bananas: Or, as Rep. Madeleine Dean, a Democrat whose district includes northern Philadelphia suburbs, told Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick at a June 5 House Appropriations Committee hearing “we cannot build bananas in America.”
So, look for your grocery bill to go up next month.
Unless, of course, another food-related tariff acronym comes into play: TACO, or Trump Always Chickens Out.
You also might find these items of interest:
- Tariffs could dim America’s future fireworks celebrations
- 10 states tax groceries, but 4 looking to cut their food levies
- U.S. moves up in latest International Tax Competitiveness Index
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