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Trump’s tariffs will increase U.S. shoppers’ grocery bills

July 28, 2025
Fruit and vegetables in baskets on kitchen island

Photo by Kay Bell

The Trump administration continues to work on tariff deals, or ultimatums depending on your point of view. The latest is the agreement under which the European Union will face 15 percent tariffs on most of the bloc’s exports to the United States.

Most of us here in America, however, are waiting for what might happen Aug. 1. That’s the day that more tariffs on imports into the United States from more than 80 countries are scheduled to go into effect.

The White House argues that its international trade approach will help revitalize U.S. manufacturing. But, as a recent Tax Foundation analysis notes, a variety of food imports are also impacted by the tariffs, and these will likely lead to higher food prices for consumers.

Imported edibles: If you are watching the price of avocados from Mexico as closely as I am, this is disturbing news. Our neighbor to the south is tops the list of food exporters to the United States, followed by Canada, the EU, Brazil, and China.

Those five nations, says the Washington, D.C.-based tax policy think tank, account for 62 percent of the United States’ total food imports.

In 2024, the Tax Foundation notes that the United States imported about $221 billion in food products, 74 percent of which ($163 billion) faced Trump tariffs.

While these imports currently face tariff rates ranging from 10 percent to 30 percent, they will exceed 30 percent for some countries if the reciprocal tariffs go into effect on August 1.

North American ag issues: There is, to borrow a recipe reference, a dash of good news for at least for some edibles. Covered goods under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in Donald Trump’s first term, are exempt from the tariffs.

That means that around 63 percent of agricultural imports from Canada and Mexico can continue to come into the United States tariff-free.

But food imports that aren’t covered under USMCA are facing tariff rates of 25 percent, which are scheduled to increase to 35 percent and 30 percent for Canada and Mexico, respectively, by August 1.

EU effects: Accounting for those exemptions, the Tax Foundation pie chart below shows the total food imports subject to the tariffs by country, with EU imports the most affected.

Eu-canada-and-mexico-food-imports-most-impacted-by-the-tariffs_Tax-Foundation-jpg

In terms of specific products, the top five food imports to the United States facing tariffs, in order, are liqueurs and spirits, baked goods, coffee, fish, and beer. These products accounted for about 21 percent of total food imports in 2024, or $46.5 billion.

Sure, some of those products we can get domestically. But they may not be perfect replacements for the imported products.

And others just aren’t replaceable.

Yes, we have no bananas: Or, as Rep. Madeleine Dean, a Democrat whose district includes northern Philadelphia suburbs, told Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick at a June 5 House Appropriations Committee hearing “we cannot build bananas in America.”

   

   
So, look for your grocery bill to go up next month.

Unless, of course, another food-related tariff acronym comes into play: TACO, or Trump Always Chickens Out.

You also might find these items of interest:

 

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TO WRAP UP 2026

It’s over! With October’s extended filing deadline behind us, it is now time to focus on year-end moves to reduce your 2026 tax bill. 

You’ll find ways to do just that on the Tax Tips page (see the More Tax Posts drop-down menu at the top of the blog), as well as the separate tax tip pages for each month, notably October through December. If you’re on the Tax Tips page, you’ll find a monthly list at the end of this column. If you’re on another blog page, you can head straight to the October tips; at the bottom of that tips page you’ll find links to all the other 11 months’ collections of tax advice.

Not to spoil what you’ll find in that tax advice, but it does cover such things as tax deductions for charitable donations, investment moves that could reduce tax due, and ways to max out your tax-favored retirement savings. 

Finally, as the year winds down, things get hectic. There are lots of other things to occupy our time, like the much more fun upcoming holidays. But don’t lose sight of taxes, since timing is key. To be of use, most tax moves must be made by the end of the tax year. That’s Thursday, Dec. 31, which also is the last business day of the year. 

So that you don’t miss that final tax year deadline, also keep an eye on the countdown clock below. It will keep you on top of just how much time is left to make important, tax-saving moves. (Note: I’m in the Central Time Zone, so adjust accordingly for where you live.)

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